Selecting a county from the list below will open another window with three alternative population growth projection scenarios that are based on different assumptions about age, sex and race/ethnicity specific rates of net migration (the scenarios use common assumptions about fertility and mortality):

1. One scenario assumes "Zero Migration" (the 0.0 scenario) thus demonstrating what the size and characteristics of the population will be if population change occurs only as a result of births and deaths (i.e., that migration into and out of the state or any given county is equal or that no in or out-migration occurs). It is provided largely for comparison purposes and is seen as unlikely to characterize the actual patterns that will occur in counties in the State in the coming decades.

2. The second scenario assumes "net migration equal to one-half of 1990-2000" (the 0.5 scenario) levels of age, sex, and race/ethnicity-specific rates of net migration and for most counties produces a level of growth that is not only slightly slower than the rate of growth of the 1990s but slightly slower than in the 1980s (in percentage terms but not in numerical terms).

3. The third scenario assumes "net migration equal to 1990-2000" (the 1.0 scenario) levels of age, sex, and race/ethnicity-specific rates of net migration, thereby assuming that the rates of age, sex, and race/ethnicity-specific net migration of the 1990s will continue from 2000 through 2040.

Depending on current and expected future conditions either the one-half (0.5) or equal to 1990-2000 (1.0) scenario may be appropriate for any given area. Because of slowing economic growth and various characteristics of the 2000 Census data collection process, the State Demographer believes that the one-half 1990-2000 scenario may be most appropriate for most areas for near-term planning but users should evaluate changes in their area relative to past and current demographic patterns before choosing a scenario for their particular use. All users are cautioned to recognize that projections of the population (and other factors) are subject to error and should be used with full recognition of their assumptions and limitations.

A more detailed description of the assumptions used in these projections can be found in the methodology available by clicking here or visiting the Texas State Data Center website for further information.